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Is development a solution for the future?
22 novembre 2007

Solving the energy crisis: optimistic technologies vs pessimistic realism

Lot of people (in our so called developed world)  are convinced technology will save  humanity. People are convinced the scientists will always found new energies to develop to save us from the "energy crisis". And then mankind will go on another planet when we will have eaten all of this one. maybe. That's what I'll call the optimistics. The only thing is that this people here are not well informed and doesn't know what the "Energy balance" is. It's the basis of thermodynamics. The water engine doesn't creates energy , it's just a way of transporting it. There 's not so much way of producing energy. Here's a list of all the sources of energy we know about

  • Nuclear fusion ( the sun, the H bombs, and some test machines called tokamak or z-pinch . The process of "cold fusion" seems to be a joke..) We know how to use it on a destructiv way, but we're still not able to control this reaction to produce energy. If it works it will be  non polluting because it creates only helium , which is fine.
  • Nuclear fission, like in nuclear power plants  and lod nuclears bombs like Little boy and Fat man..
  • The wind ,the tides, the stream of rivers. They provided energy for us since long with mills. It's old but it still work but it doesn't give much energy. ( calculer 1L de fioul pour 1h de moulin tien..) Now new wind machines are coming , but you don't fly  a plane  with a wind machine aren't you? We've helped mother nature some times by building dams, we've destroyed fertile valleys but it was to provide electricity you know...
  • The blood mill , animals and humans , which were massively used during the antiquity period. Nobody   want to go back to that.
  • All the energies coming from the captation of the sun light: all the plants , all the animals eating them , so all the so called biofuels like the bresilian E85 and bio diesel from soy or palm trees. All  the solar panels, with improving output, it will be great . I'd love flying a zeppelin covered with solar panels. Not fast but really great like in the 30's and in crimson skyes!! In  Africa (not in Cape town nor in Khartoum maybe , but everywhere else) people use wood for the fire and plants to eat. That's all! They don't have access to  massive energy sources like us.
  • What's heating you up? (and eating you down) ? Where you're light coming from? What gives you electricity if you're in China?  With what did you heat your meal last night? With oil , gaz and coal.Even your food can't grow without oil. You're in trouble

I personally think the production peak of oil and gaz and of other natural ressources will also be a peak in the number of human beings and in what we call now development. Without energy it's very difficult to develop. (cf the olduvai theory  http://generationsfutures.chez-alice.fr/petrole/olduvai.htm )

Conclusion
The energy crisis will be the main issue of the 30 next years. Getting rid of our addiction to fossile fuels will probably pass by a difficult process including war and humanitarian disasters. During this period the rich countries will have enough problem to solve on their territories and so wil abandon poor countries to their problems. The thing is :the  more a country is industrially developped the more it will be dificult for it to get rid of the addiction to fossile fuel. The only exception is Sweden , which is already doing as much as possible to get rid of oil and gaz in their economy. At this point it will be an advantage not to be developped.

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Is development a solution for the future?
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